Fwd: Foreign Policy Parallels Between President Trump and the Ayatollahs

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Od: Jon B. Alterman <middleeastprogram@csis.org>
Date: śr., 18 gru 2019 o 13:32
Subject: Foreign Policy Parallels Between President Trump and the Ayatollahs
To: <ac84703@gmail.com>

New Middle East Notes and Comment

View this email in your browser MIDDLE EAST NOTES AND COMMENT December 18, 2019 NEW ANALYSIS It's hard to imagine two parties more at loggerheads than President Trump and the Iranian leadership. They seem to look for every opportunity to undermine each other and attack each other. The strange thing, though, is they seem to have very similar instincts when it comes to foreign policy. That tendency makes them more combative to each other, but it also has a silver lining. Neither one is nearly as willing to go toe-to-toe as it might otherwise seem. Read Jon B. Alterman's full analysis in Defense One here. From the Middle East Program Reports Jon Alterman released a new report titled Ties that Bind: Family, Tribe, Nation, and the Rise of Arab Individualism. Loyalty and obligation have played a strong role in how Arabs relate to each other and to their rulers. However, rising individualism in the region poses challenges for family patriarchs, tribal elders, and government leaders. The report analyzes changing social and familial networks in the region through case studies on Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and the UAE. Babel: Translating the Middle East On Babel, Wall Street Journal's White House correspondent Vivian Salama interviewed Jon on his new report, Ties that Bind. Jon also introduces Babel's six episode miniseries, "China in the Middle East," which will air in 2020. In our Mezze podcast series, we explore a love for Christmas in Iran. In another Mezze, we look at soaring fuel prices in Yemen. In a third Mezze, we examine how youth across the Arab world are avoiding mandatory military service. Commentary Will Todman explored changing social ties and kinship networks in Saudi Arabia in a new commentary. He argues that changing economies, rapid urbanization, and the political environment have led to a weakening of traditional kinship ties. The commentary was part of the larger Ties that Bind report release. In the News "He decided some time ago that he would be in their corner," said Jon of President Trump's relationship with Saudi Arabia after the Pensacola shooting. The Washington Post (12/08/19). Jon explained why the China model is attractive to authoritarian leaders in the Middle East, saying "the Chinese message is, we have demonstrated that you can create economic growth without social and political change." Telegraph (11/28/19). On recent protests in the Levant, Jon said "everybody looking at popular protests in the Middle East has to keep very much in mind that we rarely have an idea where these are going to go." Reuters (11/26/19).   Cyber-Sheikh Majd Al-Waheidi "Can I fight off someone trying to ruin my prayer?" "Is it permissible for a woman to wear perfume?" In years past, a Muslim would ask a religious scholar (or mufti) for a ruling (or fatwa). In Dubai today, a Muslim can ask these questions to a computer. Using natural-language understanding techniques based on artificial intelligence (AI), the chatbot seeks to provide fatwas online in Arabic and English. In October 2019, the Dubai government launched the world's first AI service dedicated to religious issues. While the service is able only to answer simple questions about prayer right now, the Dubai government says it plans to expand coverage to other issues. As part of an initiative called "10X," which seeks to keep Dubai ten years ahead of other cities in innovation, planners hope the initiative will allow Dubai to scale up its efforts to counter religious radicalization. Reactions so far are mixed. Some government officials claim a positive public response and promise that accuracy will increase even further as usage increases. To some supporters, the computer-based system is the logical next step in religious authority. What began with face-to-face meetings over centuries migrated to letters and pamphlets in the nineteenth century, to radio, video, and internet recordings in the second half of the twentieth century, and now to AI. Some scholars are more critical. They argue that the AI service misses the key issues fundamental to heading off radicalization: questions of sin, religious violence, and spirituality. Some also argue that a computer-based system will never have a human understanding of the context of the question and the questioner. Others question a religious chatbot created by the government instead of by a religious organization. One mufti simply expressed his shock saying, "the end times are near." This article is part of the CSIS Middle East Program series Mezze: Assorted Stories from the Middle East.  The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit organization founded in 1962 and headquartered in Washington, D.C. It seeks to advance global security and prosperity by providing strategic insights and policy solutions to decisionmakers. Image Credits: Top Image - Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images; Side Bar - GIUSEPPE CACACE/AFP via Getty Images Copyright © 2019 Center for Strategic and International Studies, All rights reserved. You expressed an interest in CSIS's work. Our mailing address is: Center for Strategic & International Studies 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 Add us to your address book (...)